The Fourth Turning

1. The Saeculum: History's Recurring Cycle of Four Turnings

"History creates generations, and generations create history."

The saeculum concept. The saeculum is a natural cycle of human history, roughly the length of a long human life, typically lasting 80-100 years. This cycle consists of four distinct phases, called "turnings," each lasting about 20-25 years:

• First Turning: High
• Second Turning: Awakening
• Third Turning: Unraveling
• Fourth Turning: Crisis

Historical patterns. This cyclical pattern has been observed throughout Anglo-American history, with each saeculum marked by recurring themes and social moods. The authors argue that understanding these cycles can provide insights into future societal trends and challenges.

2. Generational Archetypes: Prophet, Nomad, Hero, and Artist

"Each generation has what all of history has not: a beginning, an end, and a finite path in between."

Four archetypes. The authors identify four generational archetypes that play crucial roles in shaping the turnings:

• Prophet: Idealistic, principled, and moralistic (e.g., Baby Boomers)
• Nomad: Pragmatic, survivalist, and alienated (e.g., Generation X)
• Hero: Civic-minded, confident, and team-oriented (e.g., G.I. Generation)
• Artist: Adaptive, sensitive, and compromising (e.g., Silent Generation)

Generational cycles. These archetypes appear in a fixed sequence, with each generation shaped by the social environment of its childhood and young adulthood. The interplay between these archetypes and their life stages drives the progression of the saeculum.

3. The First Turning: High - An Era of Stability and Growth

"A First Turning is a High—an upbeat era of strengthening institutions and weakening individualism, when a new civic order implants and the old values regime decays."

Characteristics of a High. The First Turning is characterized by:

• Strong institutions and social cohesion
• Economic prosperity and technological advancement
• Conformity and collective optimism
• Weakening of individualism

Historical examples. Notable First Turnings in American history include the post-World War II era (1946-1964) and the Era of Good Feelings following the War of 1812 (1815-1829). These periods were marked by economic growth, social stability, and a sense of national purpose.

4. The Second Turning: Awakening - A Time of Spiritual Upheaval

"An Awakening arrives with a dramatic challenge against the High's assumptions about benevolent reason and congenial institutions."

Characteristics of an Awakening. The Second Turning features:

• Spiritual and cultural revolutions
• Questioning of established institutions and values
• Focus on personal authenticity and self-expression
• Generational conflict between older and younger cohorts

Historical examples. Significant Awakenings include the Transcendental Awakening (1822-1844) and the Consciousness Revolution (1964-1984). These eras saw the rise of new spiritual movements, countercultures, and challenges to traditional social norms.

5. The Third Turning: Unraveling - A Period of Individualism and Weakening Institutions

"An Unraveling begins as a society-wide embrace of the liberating cultural forces set loose by the Awakening."

Characteristics of an Unraveling. The Third Turning is marked by:

• Weakening of institutions and social trust
• Rising individualism and cultural fragmentation
• Economic uncertainty and widening wealth gaps
• Cynicism towards leadership and public life

Current Unraveling. The authors argue that America entered its most recent Unraveling in the 1980s, characterized by culture wars, political gridlock, and eroding faith in public institutions. This period is expected to last until the early 2020s.

6. The Fourth Turning: Crisis - A Time of Secular Upheaval and Renewal

"The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule."

Characteristics of a Crisis. The Fourth Turning involves:

• Major societal upheaval and transformation
• Collective focus on solving existential threats
• Realignment of power structures and institutions
• Potential for both great achievements and catastrophic outcomes

Historical crises. Previous Fourth Turnings include the American Revolution, the Civil War, and the Great Depression/World War II. These periods reshaped American society and institutions in fundamental ways.

7. The Millennial Saeculum: America's Current Cycle and Future Crisis

"Sometime around the year 2005, perhaps a few years before or after, America will enter the Fourth Turning."

Current saeculum timeline. The authors outline the current Millennial Saeculum:

• First Turning (High): 1946-1964
• Second Turning (Awakening): 1964-1984
• Third Turning (Unraveling): 1984-2005?
• Fourth Turning (Crisis): 2005?-2025?

Potential catalysts. The authors suggest various scenarios that could trigger the next Crisis, including:

• Economic distress or collapse
• Technological disruptions
• Ecological disasters
• Political upheaval or constitutional crisis
• Major terrorist attacks or international conflicts

8. The Role of Generations in Shaping Historical Cycles

"Generations are among the most powerful forces in history."

Generational dynamics. The interplay between generations drives the saecular cycle:

• Prophet generation (Boomers) leads spiritual awakenings in young adulthood and steers the Crisis in elderhood
• Nomad generation (Gen X) provides pragmatic leadership during the Crisis
• Hero generation (Millennials) comes of age during the Crisis and builds the new order afterward
• Artist generation (Silent) adapts and mediates between the other archetypes

Generational constellations. The alignment of generations in different life stages creates unique social dynamics during each turning, influencing how society responds to challenges and opportunities.

9. Preparing for the Fourth Turning: Individual and Societal Strategies

"The Fourth Turning will be a time of glory or ruin."

Individual preparation. The authors suggest ways to prepare for the coming Crisis:

• Develop practical skills and resilience
• Build strong community ties and social networks
• Cultivate a sense of civic responsibility
• Understand historical patterns to anticipate challenges

Societal strategies. To navigate the Fourth Turning successfully, society should:

• Strengthen core institutions and infrastructure
• Foster intergenerational cooperation and understanding
• Develop flexible and adaptive governance structures
• Cultivate a shared sense of national purpose and values

Potential outcomes. The authors emphasize that the result of the Crisis is not predetermined. Society's choices during this period will shape the new order that emerges, with the potential for either renewal and progress or decline and fragmentation.

Last updated: July 21, 2024