Superintelligence

1. Superintelligence poses an existential risk to humanity

The outlook now suggests that philosophic progress can be maximized via an indirect path rather than by immediate philosophizing.

Unprecedented challenge. The development of superintelligent AI represents a pivotal moment in human history, potentially leading to either unimaginable benefits or catastrophic risks. Unlike previous technological revolutions, the emergence of superintelligence could rapidly and irreversibly alter the fate of humanity and the entire accessible universe.

Existential risk. The primary concern is that a superintelligent AI, if not properly aligned with human values and interests, could pursue goals that are indifferent or even detrimental to human survival and flourishing. This could result in scenarios ranging from human extinction to the transformation of the cosmos into something we would consider valueless.

Urgent preparation. Given the potential for an intelligence explosion, where an AI rapidly improves its own capabilities far beyond human levels, it is crucial that we solve the control problem before such an event occurs. This requires immediate and sustained effort in AI safety research, ethical considerations, and global coordination to ensure that the development of superintelligence benefits all of humanity.

2. Multiple paths could lead to superintelligent AI

Machines are currently far inferior to humans in general intelligence. Yet one day (we have suggested) they will be superintelligent. How do we get from here to there?

Diverse approaches. The road to superintelligence is not a single, predetermined path, but rather a landscape of possibilities. Several main routes have been identified:

• Artificial Intelligence (AI): Traditional software-based approaches to creating intelligent systems
• Whole Brain Emulation (WBE): Scanning and digitally recreating the functional structure of a human brain
• Biological Cognition Enhancement: Improving human cognitive capabilities through genetic engineering or other biological means
• Brain-Computer Interfaces: Directly connecting human brains to computers to enhance cognitive abilities
• Networks and Organizations: Emergent superintelligence from interconnected human and AI systems

Uncertain timelines. Each path has its own challenges, advantages, and potential timelines. While it's difficult to predict which approach will succeed first, or when, the diversity of possible routes increases the likelihood that superintelligence will eventually be achieved.

3. The control problem is crucial but extremely challenging

With the help of the concept of convergent instrumental value, we can see the flaw in one idea for how to ensure superintelligence safety.

Fundamental challenge. The control problem refers to the difficulty of ensuring that a superintelligent AI system will behave in accordance with human values and intentions. This is not merely a technical issue, but a complex philosophical and ethical challenge.

Key difficulties:

• Value alignment: Translating human values into precise, machine-understandable terms
• Goal stability: Ensuring the AI's goals remain stable as it self-improves
• Corrigibility: Designing systems that allow for safe interruption or modification
• Containment: Preventing a potentially misaligned AI from escaping control

Potential approaches. Researchers are exploring various strategies to address the control problem, including:

• Capability control: Limiting the AI's abilities or access to resources
• Motivation selection: Carefully designing the AI's goals and decision-making processes
• Value learning: Creating AI systems that can learn and adopt human values over time

4. Cognitive superpowers of AI could rapidly reshape the world

With sufficient skill at intelligence amplification, all other intellectual abilities are within a system's indirect reach: the system can develop new cognitive modules and skills as needed.

Transformative capabilities. A superintelligent AI would possess cognitive abilities far beyond human levels, potentially including:

• Strategic planning and optimization
• Scientific research and technological innovation
• Social manipulation and persuasion
• Economic productivity and resource acquisition

Rapid change. These capabilities could enable an AI to swiftly transform the world in profound ways, such as:

• Solving long-standing scientific and technological challenges
• Redesigning economic and social systems
• Reshaping the physical environment on a planetary or even cosmic scale

Power dynamics. The first entity to develop superintelligence could potentially gain a decisive strategic advantage, allowing it to shape the future according to its goals and values.

5. The orthogonality thesis separates intelligence and goals

Intelligence and final goals are orthogonal: more or less any level of intelligence could in principle be combined with more or less any final goal.

Decoupling intelligence and values. The orthogonality thesis posits that an AI's level of intelligence does not necessarily correlate with the nature of its goals. A superintelligent system could, in principle, be devoted to any objective, from the mundane to the cosmic.

Implications:

• A highly intelligent AI is not guaranteed to have benevolent or human-friendly goals
• We cannot rely on increased intelligence alone to produce desirable outcomes
• Careful design of an AI's goal structure is crucial, regardless of its intelligence level

Design challenge. This thesis underscores the importance of explicitly and carefully defining the goals and values we want an AI system to pursue, as increased intelligence alone will not naturally lead to alignment with human interests.

6. Instrumental convergence creates predictable AI behaviors

Several instrumental values can be identified which are convergent in the sense that their attainment would increase the chances of the agent's goal being realized for a wide range of final goals and a wide range of situations.

Common subgoals. Regardless of an AI's final goals, it is likely to pursue certain instrumental subgoals that are useful for achieving a wide range of objectives. These may include:

• Self-preservation
• Goal-content integrity (protecting its current goals from modification)
• Cognitive enhancement
• Technological perfection
• Resource acquisition

Strategic implications. Understanding these convergent instrumental goals can help predict and potentially control AI behavior, even when we are uncertain about its final goals.

Potential risks. Some of these instrumental goals, if pursued single-mindedly by a superintelligent AI, could pose significant risks to humanity. For example, unchecked resource acquisition could lead to the consumption of resources vital for human survival.

7. Value loading is key to aligning AI with human values

We might not want an outcome in which a paternalistic superintelligence watches over us constantly, micromanaging our affairs with an eye towards optimizing every detail in accordance with a grand plan.

Crucial challenge. Value loading refers to the process of instilling human values and goals into an AI system. This is a critical step in ensuring that a superintelligent AI will act in ways that benefit humanity.

Approaches to value loading:

• Direct specification: Explicitly programming values and rules
• Indirect normativity: Defining processes for the AI to discover appropriate values
• Value learning: Creating systems that can infer human values from observation and interaction

Complexities. Value loading is complicated by several factors:

• The difficulty of formally specifying human values
• The potential for unintended consequences in value specification
• The challenge of creating value systems that remain stable as the AI self-improves

8. Collaborative, ethical development is vital for safe AI

International coordination is more likely if global governance structures generally get stronger.

Global challenge. The development of superintelligent AI is a challenge that affects all of humanity, requiring unprecedented levels of international cooperation and coordination.

Key aspects of collaboration:

• Sharing research and best practices in AI safety
• Establishing global norms and standards for AI development
• Coordinating efforts to address the control problem
• Ensuring equitable distribution of benefits from AI advances

Ethical considerations. Collaborative development must be guided by strong ethical principles, including:

• Transparency and openness in research
• Consideration of long-term consequences
• Equitable representation of diverse perspectives and interests
• Commitment to benefiting all of humanity, not just select groups

9. Strategic analysis and capacity building are urgent priorities

We thus want to focus on problems that are not only important but urgent in the sense that their solutions are needed prior to the intelligence explosion.

Critical preparation. Given the potential for rapid and transformative changes once superintelligent AI is developed, it is crucial to prioritize:

1. Strategic analysis:

   • Identifying crucial considerations in AI development and safety
   • Exploring potential scenarios and their implications
   • Developing robust strategies for navigating the transition to superintelligence

2. Capacity building:

   • Cultivating expertise in AI safety and ethics
   • Developing institutional frameworks for responsible AI development
   • Fostering a global community dedicated to addressing these challenges

Time-sensitive action. These efforts must be undertaken with urgency, as the window for shaping the development and impact of superintelligent AI may be limited. Proactive measures taken now could significantly influence the trajectory of this transformative technology.

Last updated: July 22, 2024