Proof of Conspiracy

1. The Red Sea Conspiracy: A secret plot to reshape Middle East politics

In late 2015, after Donald Trump has formally announced his candidacy for president, a geopolitical conspiracy emerges overseas whose key participants are the leaders of Russia, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Egypt.

A clandestine alliance forms. In the fall of 2015, George Nader, an adviser to UAE Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ), convenes a secret meeting on a yacht in the Red Sea. The attendees include Saudi Arabia's Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), MBZ, Egypt's Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, and representatives from Bahrain and Jordan. Their goal: to reshape Middle East politics by:

• Reforming the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to exclude Qatar, Kuwait, and Oman
• Aligning with Israel against Iran
• Supporting Donald Trump's presidential campaign
• Seeking Russian cooperation to counter Iranian influence

This "Red Sea Conspiracy" sets the stage for a dramatic realignment of regional alliances and U.S. foreign policy in the years to come.

2. Trump's inner circle forges covert alliances with foreign powers

Throughout the 2016 campaign, Simes will profoundly influence, from behind the scenes, the four most controversial components of candidate Trump's foreign policy agenda: his stances toward Putin, Russian election interference, the Kremlin's military adventures in Ukraine, and U.S. sanctions against Russia.

A shadow foreign policy emerges. Key figures in Trump's orbit establish unofficial channels with foreign powers:

• Dimitri Simes, a Russia expert, becomes an unofficial adviser to the campaign
• Michael Flynn engages with Russian officials and works on a "Middle East Marshall Plan"
• George Papadopoulos attempts to set up a Trump-Putin meeting
• Paul Manafort shares campaign data with a Russian intelligence-linked individual

These covert connections raise serious questions about foreign influence on the campaign and subsequent administration policies. The Mueller Report later reveals the extent of these undisclosed contacts, highlighting the potential compromise of U.S. interests.

3. Kushner's WhatsApp diplomacy and the rise of Mohammed bin Salman

Beginning in March 2017, Kushner periodically broaches new topics with MBS without informing anyone else in the federal government.

Personal relationships supplant official channels. Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law and senior adviser, develops a close relationship with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), communicating frequently via WhatsApp. This unofficial diplomacy:

• Bypasses traditional State Department and National Security Council channels
• Alarms career diplomats and intelligence officials
• Potentially influences U.S. policy on the Saudi-led blockade of Qatar
• May have played a role in MBS's consolidation of power in Saudi Arabia

Kushner's unorthodox approach raises concerns about conflicts of interest, given his family's business ties in the region, and the potential for foreign manipulation of U.S. foreign policy.

4. The Qatar blockade: Geopolitical chess with billion-dollar consequences

If the [Kushner-HBJ] deal is not entirely dead, that means Jared Kushner is on the one hand pushing to use the power of American diplomacy to pummel a small nation, while on the other his firm is hoping to extract an extraordinary amount of capital from there for a failing investment.

Personal interests intertwine with foreign policy. In June 2017, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt impose a blockade on Qatar, citing its alleged support for terrorism. The blockade's timing and U.S. response raise questions about potential conflicts of interest:

• Kushner Companies had recently sought Qatari investment for their troubled 666 Fifth Avenue property
• Jared Kushner supports the blockade, undermining Secretary of State Tillerson's mediation efforts
• The crisis pushes Qatar closer to Iran and Turkey, complicating U.S. regional strategy
• Questions arise about whether U.S. policy was influenced by personal financial interests

The Qatar blockade episode illustrates the complex interplay between personal relationships, business interests, and foreign policy in the Trump administration.

5. Flynn's Middle East Marshall Plan and nuclear ambitions

Flynn told President Trump's transition team weeks before the [January 2017] inauguration that he was under federal investigation for secretly working as a paid lobbyist for Turkey during the [2016] campaign.

Nuclear ambitions and hidden agendas. Michael Flynn, Trump's first National Security Advisor, pursued a controversial "Middle East Marshall Plan" involving:

• U.S.-Saudi-Russian cooperation on nuclear power in the Middle East
• Potential violation of U.S. laws on nuclear technology transfer
• Continued work on the plan even after Flynn's dismissal from the White House

Key aspects of the plan:

• Involved private companies like IP3 and ACU Strategic Partners
• Required lifting U.S. sanctions on Russia
• Raised concerns among career officials about legality and national security implications

Flynn's undisclosed work for Turkey and his pursuit of this nuclear plan highlight the ethical and security concerns surrounding key figures in the early Trump administration.

6. Israeli tech firms and social media manipulation in the 2016 election

Cambridge Analytica was supposed to be the arsenal of weapons to fight that culture war.

Digital warfare and foreign interference. Israeli tech firms and social media manipulation played a significant role in the 2016 election:

• Cambridge Analytica, linked to Steve Bannon and Robert Mercer, harvested Facebook data for targeted political messaging
• Psy-Group, an Israeli firm, pitched social media manipulation services to the Trump campaign
• These efforts raised questions about foreign interference and the use of personal data in political campaigns

Key players and actions:

• Joel Zamel of Psy-Group met with Donald Trump Jr. at Trump Tower
• George Nader, representing Gulf state interests, facilitated connections
• The extent of these firms' actual involvement remains unclear, but investigations continue

The role of these tech firms highlights the evolving nature of election interference and the challenges in regulating digital campaigning.

7. The Seychelles meeting: Establishing back-channel communications

The United Arab Emirates arranged a secret meeting in January [2017] between Blackwater founder Erik Prince and a Russian close to President Vladimir Putin as part of an apparent effort to establish a back-channel line of communication between Moscow and President-elect Donald Trump.

Covert diplomacy in paradise. In January 2017, a secret meeting takes place in the Seychelles, orchestrated by the UAE:

• Erik Prince, Blackwater founder and informal Trump adviser, meets with Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia's sovereign wealth fund
• George Nader, representing the UAE, facilitates the meeting
• The goal: establish unofficial communication between the Trump team and Moscow

Significance:

• Bypassed official diplomatic channels
• Raised questions about the UAE's role in U.S.-Russia relations
• Became a focus of the Mueller investigation

This episode underscores the Trump team's efforts to establish unconventional diplomatic channels and the complex web of international players involved.

8. Trump's inaugural committee: A web of foreign influence and missing millions

In December 2018, the New York Times will reveal that federal prosecutors in the Southern District of New York (Manhattan) and Eastern District of New York (Brooklyn) investigating Trump's inaugural fund and a pro-Trump super PAC are focusing "on whether people from Middle Eastern nations—including Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates—used straw donors to disguise their donations to the two funds."

Follow the money. Trump's inaugural committee, chaired by Thomas Barrack, raised a record $106.7 million, but questions soon arose about its finances:

• Investigations into potential illegal foreign donations, particularly from Middle Eastern countries
• Concerns about how funds were spent, with $40 million unaccounted for
• Scrutiny of Barrack's connections to Gulf states and potential influence-peddling

Key issues:

• Potential use of straw donors to disguise foreign contributions
• Overpayment for services at Trump-owned properties
• Possible quid pro quo arrangements for access or influence

The inaugural fund controversy highlights the broader concerns about foreign influence and financial impropriety surrounding the Trump administration.

9. Tillerson's downfall and the triumph of personal diplomacy

Tillerson's attempts to mediate the crisis were quickly undercut by Trump and Kushner, who supported the blockade.

Traditional diplomacy sidelined. Rex Tillerson's tenure as Secretary of State was marked by frequent clashes with Trump and Kushner's personal approach to foreign policy:

• Tillerson opposed the Qatar blockade, putting him at odds with Trump and Kushner
• He expressed concern about Kushner's back-channel communications with foreign leaders
• Tillerson's attempts to conduct traditional diplomacy were often undermined by White House actions

Factors in Tillerson's downfall:

• Resistance to Kushner's Middle East initiatives
• Disagreements over Iran policy and the nuclear deal
• Pressure from Gulf allies, particularly the UAE, for his removal

Tillerson's experience illustrates the shift away from traditional diplomatic channels and the ascendance of personal relationships in shaping U.S. foreign policy under Trump.

Last updated: July 21, 2024