How Everything Became War and the Military Became Everything

1. War has burst out of its old boundaries, blurring lines between war and peace

War has burst out of its old boundaries.

Expanding conflict. The traditional boundaries between war and peace have become increasingly blurred. Conflicts now extend beyond conventional battlefields into cyberspace, economics, and information warfare. Non-state actors like terrorist groups and hackers can wage asymmetric warfare against nation-states. The military finds itself engaged in a wide range of non-combat activities even during peacetime.

Unclear distinctions. It has become more difficult to clearly delineate between:

• Wartime and peacetime
• Combatants and civilians
• Military and civilian domains
• Foreign and domestic issues

This ambiguity creates legal and ethical challenges in determining when and how military force can be used. The notion of war as a distinct, bounded state of affairs has broken down in the face of persistent low-level conflicts and threats.

2. The military's role has expanded far beyond traditional combat

Today's military has vastly expanded its sphere of activities.

Diverse missions. Modern militaries, especially the U.S. military, now engage in a vast array of non-combat activities:

• Humanitarian assistance and disaster relief
• Nation-building and governance support
• Economic development projects
• Health care and education initiatives
• Cybersecurity operations
• Counterterrorism and counterinsurgency

Blurred lines. This expansion of military activities into traditionally civilian domains raises concerns about the "militarization" of foreign policy and aid. It also creates challenges in training and equipping forces for such diverse missions. The military has become a tool for addressing a wide range of global issues beyond just fighting wars.

3. Technological advances are reshaping warfare in unprecedented ways

Future wars won't involve humans at all. Perhaps we will leave war to the robots.

New technologies. Advances in robotics, artificial intelligence, cyberwarfare, and other fields are radically changing the nature of conflict:

• Autonomous weapons systems
• Drone warfare
• Cyberattacks on infrastructure
• Information warfare and propaganda

Ethical dilemmas. These technologies raise profound ethical and legal questions about human control, accountability, and the laws of war. They may reduce casualties in some ways while creating new vulnerabilities and forms of conflict. The pace of change makes it difficult for laws and norms to keep up.

4. The "global war on terror" has eroded legal and ethical norms

When war transcends all boundaries, do the legal and moral categories we have relied upon to channel and constrain violence and coercion lose all value?

Expanding conflict. The post-9/11 "war on terror" has been used to justify military action far beyond traditional battlefields, eroding norms of sovereignty and human rights. Concepts like "unlawful combatants" have challenged established laws of war.

Legal ambiguity. Key legal principles have been stretched or redefined:

• What constitutes an "imminent threat"?
• When is targeted killing permissible?
• What are the limits of military detention?

This ambiguity undermines the rule of law and creates a dangerous precedent for other nations to follow. It risks normalizing a permanent state of war with few legal constraints.

5. Targeted killings and drone strikes pose major challenges to international law

If killing a suspected terrorist based in Yemen or Somalia or Libya will endanger expensive manned aircraft, the lives of U.S. troops, and/or the lives of many innocent civilians, officials will reserve such killings for situations of extreme urgency and gravity (stopping another 9/11, finally getting Osama bin Laden). But if all that appears to be at risk is an easily replaceable drone, officials will be tempted to use lethal force more and more casually.

Lowered barriers. Drone technology has made it easier and less costly for the U.S. to conduct targeted killings outside of traditional war zones. This has led to an expansion of such strikes, raising concerns about their legality and strategic wisdom.

Legal challenges. Targeted drone strikes raise difficult legal questions:

• How is imminence of threat determined?
• What level of evidence is required?
• How is proportionality assessed?
• When do strikes violate sovereignty?

The secrecy surrounding the drone program makes it difficult to evaluate its compliance with international law. There are fears that other nations will adopt similar practices, further eroding global norms against assassination and extrajudicial killing.

6. Efforts to constrain war through law have a long but imperfect history

Law is an optimistic enterprise. It is premised on the conviction that even the almost unimaginable extremes of human emotion and behavior can be made subject to the law's rationalizing power—the conviction that law can reach into the very heart of darkness, and make us better than we have so far proven to be.

Historical evolution. Efforts to legally constrain warfare date back millennia, from ancient religious texts to medieval chivalric codes. Modern international humanitarian law emerged in the 19th century and expanded greatly after World War II.

Persistent challenges. Despite progress, the laws of war face ongoing difficulties:

• Keeping pace with technological change
• Addressing non-state actors and asymmetric conflict
• Balancing military necessity with humanitarian concerns
• Ensuring compliance and enforcement

While imperfect, these laws remain a vital tool for mitigating the horrors of war and upholding human dignity. Their erosion risks a return to unrestrained brutality in conflict.

7. The changing nature of war is transforming the state and international order

War made the state, and the state made war.

Historical link. The modern nation-state developed in tandem with changes in warfare, as governments centralized power to wage war more effectively. This process shaped institutions like taxation, bureaucracy, and citizenship.

New pressures. Today's changing nature of conflict is again reshaping states and the international system:

• Erosion of state sovereignty
• Rise of non-state actors
• Blurring of civilian and military roles
• Challenges to collective security mechanisms

These shifts are weakening traditional state structures and international institutions, creating uncertainty about the future global order. New forms of governance may be needed to address transnational threats and conflicts.

8. Secret wars and expanded executive power threaten democratic principles

If I were a member of Congress right now, I would be hopping mad.

Lack of oversight. The expansion of covert military operations and targeted killings has occurred with little congressional oversight or public debate. This undermines democratic accountability and the constitutional balance of powers.

Erosion of checks and balances. Concerns include:

• Broad interpretations of war authorizations
• Limited transparency on operations and legal reasoning
• Expansion of executive war powers
• Reduced role for Congress in war-making decisions

The conduct of "secret wars" threatens core principles of democratic governance and risks normalizing a state of permanent, undeclared conflict beyond public scrutiny.

9. The future of war and peace remains highly uncertain

We literally have no points of comparison for understanding the scale and scope of the risks faced by humanity today.

Unprecedented risks. The pace of technological and social change makes it difficult to predict future conflicts. Potential risks include:

• Cyber warfare on critical infrastructure
• Bioengineered weapons
• Climate change-driven conflicts
• Nuclear proliferation

Need for adaptation. Traditional approaches to war, peace, and international order may be inadequate for addressing these challenges. New legal frameworks, institutions, and ethical principles may be needed to navigate an uncertain future and prevent catastrophic outcomes.

Humanity faces the dual challenge of mitigating new existential risks while also preserving hard-won norms that have helped reduce interstate conflict. Creative solutions will be needed to address emerging threats while upholding human rights and the rule of law.

Last updated: October 1, 2024