How Civil Wars Start

1. The United States is dangerously close to civil war

America is a factionalized anocracy that is quickly approaching the open insurgency stage, which means we are closer to civil war than any of us would like to believe.

Political instability rising. The U.S. has experienced a sharp decline in its democracy rating since 2016, dropping from a +10 to a +5 on the Polity scale used by experts to measure regime types. This places America firmly in the "anocracy" zone between democracy and autocracy for the first time in over 200 years.

Warning signs accumulating. Several factors that typically precede civil wars are now present in the U.S.:

• Weakening democratic institutions
• Growing political polarization along identity lines
• Rise of extremist militias and domestic terrorism
• Declining trust in government and media
• Increasing acceptance of political violence

Experts concerned. While most Americans can't imagine another civil war, scholars who study political violence see alarming parallels to other countries that have descended into internal conflict. The speed of America's democratic backsliding has been especially troubling to researchers.

2. Anocracies are at highest risk for internal conflict

Countries almost never go from full autocracy to full democracy without a rocky transition in between.

Partial democracies vulnerable. Anocracies - regimes that mix democratic and autocratic features - are 3 times more likely to experience civil war than full democracies. They lack the repressive capability of autocracies to crush dissent, but also the robust institutions of democracies to peacefully resolve conflicts.

Unstable middle ground. Countries transitioning to or away from democracy pass through a dangerous middle zone where the risk of violence spikes. Key destabilizing factors in anocracies include:

• Weak, disorganized governments
• Erosion of democratic norms and institutions
• Opportunistic elites exploiting instability
• Newly empowered groups demanding rapid change
• Previously dominant groups resisting loss of status

U.S. entering danger zone. America's declining democracy score places it squarely in the anocracy category associated with heightened conflict risk. Continuing erosion of democratic safeguards could push the country further toward instability.

3. Political factions based on identity increase instability

Today, the best predictor of how Americans will vote is their race.

Identity politics on the rise. U.S. political parties have become increasingly aligned with racial, religious and geographic identities rather than ideologies. This "factionalism" based on identity is a key predictor of civil conflict.

Dangerous divisions deepening. America's political landscape is increasingly defined by mutually exclusive identity groups:

• Race: 90% of Republicans are white; Democrats are much more diverse
• Religion: White evangelicals dominate the GOP; secular voters lean Democrat
• Geography: Rural vs urban divide maps closely to party affiliation

Ethnic entrepreneurs inflame tensions. Political leaders exploit and exacerbate identity divisions to gain power, portraying rival groups as existential threats. This us-vs-them mentality makes compromise difficult and violence more likely.

4. Declining status drives groups to violence

In the twenty-first century, the most dangerous factions are once-dominant groups facing decline.

Loss of power motivates extremism. Groups that have historically held power but see their status slipping are most likely to initiate violence. This "downgrading" creates a sense of resentment and desperation.

White anxiety in America. Many white Americans, especially in rural areas, feel their status and way of life threatened by:

• Demographic shifts toward a majority-minority nation
• Economic changes favoring educated urban professionals
• Cultural changes challenging traditional values

Parallels to other conflicts. Similar dynamics of declining group status leading to violence have played out in:

• Northern Ireland (Protestants resisting Catholic empowerment)
• Yugoslavia (Serbs fighting loss of dominance)
• Iraq (Sunnis opposing Shia majority rule)

5. Failed reforms and lost hope trigger civil wars

It's when a group looks into the future and sees nothing but additional pain that they start to see violence as their only path to progress.

Peaceful attempts precede violence. Most rebel groups first try non-violent methods like protests, elections, and legal challenges before resorting to armed conflict. It's only when these fail repeatedly that hope for peaceful change dies.

Catalysts for conflict. Key triggers that often precede outbreak of civil war:

• Brutal government response to protests
• Rigged or cancelled elections
• Failure of promising reform efforts
• Political repression of opposition groups

U.S. experiencing warning signs. Recent events like the violent response to BLM protests, claims of election fraud, and the January 6 attack have echoes of triggers seen in other pre-war contexts. Continued erosion of faith in peaceful political processes increases risk.

6. Social media accelerates polarization and extremism

Take away the social media bullhorn and you turn down the volume on bullies, conspiracy theorists, bots, trolls, disinformation machines, hate-mongers, and enemies of democracy.

Algorithms amplify division. Social media platforms are designed to maximize "engagement," which often means promoting controversial and extreme content that inflames tensions between groups.

Echo chambers radicalize. Online spaces allow extremist ideas to spread rapidly and users to self-segregate into ideological bubbles, reducing exposure to moderate views. This creates fertile ground for conspiracy theories and radicalization.

Foreign actors exploit. America's adversaries use social media to deliberately sow discord and exacerbate internal divisions, treating it as a new form of information warfare.

Regulation challenges. The borderless nature of social media and free speech concerns make regulating online extremism difficult, allowing dangerous ideologies to proliferate unchecked.

7. Domestic extremism poses a growing threat in America

If we know what terrorists are after, and how they are likely to pursue their goals, we can formulate our own counterstrategy, drawing on the experiences of other countries around the world.

Far-right groups expanding. The number of active anti-government extremist groups in the U.S. has surged since 2008, with particular growth in white nationalist organizations.

Increasing violence. Domestic terrorism incidents, especially those linked to far-right ideologies, have risen sharply in recent years. Notable attacks include:

• 2015 Charleston church shooting
• 2017 Charlottesville car attack
• 2018 Pittsburgh synagogue shooting
• 2019 El Paso Walmart shooting
• 2021 Capitol insurrection

Government response lagging. U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies have been slow to recognize and respond to the growing domestic terror threat, focusing instead on foreign extremists.

8. A second U.S. civil war would be decentralized and guerrilla-style

If America has a second civil war, the combatants will not gather in fields, nor will they wear uniforms.

No conventional battles. Unlike the first Civil War, a modern conflict would likely involve:

• Small, decentralized militia groups
• Targeted assassinations of officials and civilians
• Bombings of infrastructure and public spaces
• Cyber attacks on government and financial systems

Blurred lines. Distinguishing between civilians and combatants would be difficult, with extremists blending into communities.

Asymmetric tactics. Rebels would use guerrilla warfare and terrorism to provoke overreaction by the government and sow chaos.

Foreign involvement likely. America's adversaries would likely provide covert support to rebel groups to destabilize the country.

9. Strengthening democracy is key to preventing conflict

We need to reform our government to make it more transparent, more accountable to voters, and more equitable and inclusive of all citizens.

Shore up institutions. Key reforms to reduce conflict risk:

• Strengthen voting rights and election integrity
• Reduce gerrymandering and campaign finance corruption
• Improve civic education and media literacy
• Regulate social media to reduce extremism

Address grievances. Proactively tackle issues fueling resentment:

• Invest in rural and deindustrialized areas
• Improve economic mobility and reduce inequality
• Reform immigration system
• Promote inclusive national identity

Bipartisan cooperation crucial. Political leaders must reject extremism and work across party lines to strengthen democratic norms and institutions.

Learn from history. Other countries like South Africa have navigated dangerous transitions through compromise and inclusive reforms. The U.S. can draw lessons from these experiences to chart a peaceful path forward.

Last updated: July 26, 2024